{"id":22548,"date":"2019-01-15T01:00:24","date_gmt":"2019-01-15T01:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jww.org\/?p=22548"},"modified":"2019-01-15T01:00:24","modified_gmt":"2019-01-15T01:00:24","slug":"sudan-protests-calls-for-bread-evolve-into-civil-rights-revolution-reach-darfur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jww.org\/site\/sudan-protests-calls-for-bread-evolve-into-civil-rights-revolution-reach-darfur\/","title":{"rendered":"Sudan protests: Calls for bread evolve into civil rights revolution, reach Darfur"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sudan has been roiled by protests and concomitant violence since mid-December.  What began as popular disapproval over steep hikes in bread prices, which tripled overnight due to a government cut of a vital bread subsidy, has now metamorphosed into growing anti-government rallies demanding President Omar al-Bashir\u2019s resignation.   The protests have spread to engulf towns and cities throughout Sudan, including, most recently, the <\/span>Darfur region<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jewish World Watch was founded in response to the Darfur genocide, and we remain committed to advocating on behalf of and supporting the survivor communities, both inside and outside of Darfur, until they attain the security, stability, and sustainable livelihoods they rightfully deserve.  <\/span><\/p>\n

As would be expected from Bashir\u2019s tainted past as the <\/span>architect of genocide<\/span><\/a> and other mass atrocities in Darfur, these protests have been met with disproportionate and illegal use of force by his security forces.   Dozens have been killed and the steadfastness of the opposition suggests that the protests could grow bloodier. In addition to shooting live rounds into crowds and using tear gas, security forces have arrested and beaten countless journalists, professionals, and political leaders.  The Internet and phone service have been shut down countrywide. Nevertheless, photos and videos that managed to get posted to social media show protesters calling for Bashir to step down as well as the extent of the physical violence being perpetrated against them. <\/span><\/p>\n

In the past, President Bashir and his government have been able to ride out popular demonstrations.  But these newest protests, demanding Bashir\u2019s resignation because of chronic economic mismanagement and corruption, have spread like wildfire, even to loyalist regions, and have bolstered rising discontent within his own party.  Protestors have gathered in Bashir\u2019s strongholds in the riverine north and even attacked several ruling party offices. <\/span><\/p>\n

While the government\u2019s security forces have shown brutality in attempting to quell these mounting calls for change, the army has demonstrated surprising restraint, perhaps because the political opposition has come out to urge generals to remove Bashir.  According to the <\/span>International Crisis Group<\/span><\/a>, \u201cDiscontent within the ruling party, the depth of the economic crisis and the diverse makeup of protests suggest Bashir has less room to maneuver than before.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In Sudan, at least 5.5 million people are in need of humanitarian aid, and about two million are internally displaced, primarily in Darfur and in the southern Blue Nile and South Kordofan states, where protracted rebellions continue to bring despair to the local civilian populations.  A ceasefire for these regions, announced by Bashir last year, quietly–and perhaps dangerously–expired on Jan. 1, overshadowed by the populist revolt. <\/span><\/p>\n

Background to the protests<\/b><\/h2>\n

Protests began on <\/span>Dec 19 in Atbara<\/span><\/a>, a town about 200 miles outside of Khartoum, the capital.  Discontent quickly spread to at least 28 towns and cities across the country, mirroring in many ways the dynamics of the Arab Spring.  People from all facets of Sudanese society initially took to the streets to protest the rising cost of food staples, particularly bread, which skyrocketed after the government lifted wheat subsidies without implementing protections to offset deteriorating living conditions.  As the ire spread countrywide, the protestors\u2019 call for economic improvements transformed into chants calling for Bashir and other top officials to step down. <\/span><\/p>\n

While protestors hail from mixed political and economic backgrounds, including members of Sudan\u2019s long-standing leftist movements as well as the rural poor, Sudanese professionals have emerged as leaders in the call for change.  Protests have been taking place closer to Sudan\u2019s wealthier center as well as areas traditionally loyal to Bashir. The newly-formed Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), an umbrella organization comprised of several professional unions that have gone on strike–has spearheaded multiple marches on the presidential palace.  SPA has been coordinating its efforts with a loose coalition of youth movements, though the lion\u2019s share of the protestors are ordinary Sudanese who blame their desperate economic predicament on Bashir\u2019s 30-year long dictatorial, kleptocratic reign. <\/span><\/p>\n

Protestors have attacked several offices of Bashir\u2019s ruling National Congress Party (NCP), ransacking and burning the buildings in tactics that have rarely been seen outside of Sudan\u2019s war-beleaguered conflict zones.  In response, the government has unleashed its four major security organs: the police, the Sudanese armed forces, the National Intelligence and Security Service, and the notorious Rapid Support Forces militia. These security apparatuses have deployed their historically barbaric tactics; though indiscriminate attacks on civilians have been relatively bridled, not yet having reached the levels of previous demonstrations, most notably the 2013 protests around the removal of a fuel subsidy, which left almost 200 dead.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps the clearest statement of the political opposition\u2019s mission came from the Sudan Professionals Association after a march it organized on Dec 27: \u201cToday, we the Sudanese people\u2026have crossed the point of no return on the path of change\u2026.We will pursue all options of peaceful, popular actions\u2026until we bring down the regime that continues to shed blood.  Today, more than any time before, we are confident in our collective ability to realize that.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Radio Dabanga reported that doctors from Khartoum who treated injured demonstrators said that security forces were \u201cshooting to kill.\u201d  Sudan expert Eric Reeves has posted numerous photographs of snipers strategically positioned in Khartoum. When Sudanese civilians have managed to get onto social media, they have exposed a shocking number of bullet wounds to the head, mostly in young men, strongly suggesting that \u201cshoot to kill\u201d orders have been issued or at minimum discretion to use targeted lethal force.   <\/span><\/p>\n

As of late December, <\/span>Amnesty International<\/span><\/a> had received credible reports of 37 people killed at the hands of government security forces.  Human Rights Watch has put the death doll at 40, including children. Definitive numbers are difficult to obtain amidst the crackdown on journalists and avenues of communication.  However, the Sudan Tribune says that reliable sources within the medical community, compiled from different Sudanese hospitals and clinics, place the death toll at closer to 70. Hundreds have been injured, and more than 2,000 activists and political leaders have been arrested.  Doctors and medics seems to have been strategically targeted. <\/span><\/p>\n

Recent violence<\/b><\/h2>\n

According to <\/span>Yasir Arman<\/span><\/a>, writing in the Sudan Tribune, Sunday January 6 marked one of the biggest demonstrations in Sudan\u2019s history.  Labeling the protests, \u201ca tsunami against all odds,\u201d Arman writes that this \u201crevolution\u201d has \u201cbrought into the political scene a new generation of women and men who have shown impressive courage against the fascism of political Islam, and they have marked a qualitative change in the struggle of the urban and rural areas of Sudan.  It constitutes the foundation of a new civil rights movement.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Last Wednesday, Jan. 9, at last three people were killed and many others wounded in the economic epicenter of Omdurman.  Witnesses and observers described it as the largest demonstration since the beginning of protests in mid-December. On-the-ground accounts and videos posted on social media show that security forces fired bullets and tear gas into hospitals.  They also beat doctors and patients while inside. Plain-clothed security forces were seen hunting down demonstrators, beating them and confiscating their phones after arresting them. <\/span><\/p>\n

On Sunday, Jan. 13, riot police fired tear gas at crowds of anti-government protesters chanting \u201cpeace, peace\u201d and \u201crevolution is the people\u2019s choice,\u201d in Khartoum.  Protesters carried the Sudanese flag as well as banners bearing the slogan \u201cpeace, justice, freedom,\u201d which has become a key rallying cry of the movement. They are determined to achieve a complete government overhaul.<\/span><\/p>\n

Demonstrations also broke out for the first time in the western region of Darfur, after the Sudanese Professionals\u2019 Association called for rallies in the war-beleaguered region.  Protestors took to the streets of El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state. Sudan\u2019s National Human Rights Commission condemned the use of live ammunition against demonstrators.  <\/span>Jewish World Watch commends the people of Darfur for making their voices heard and not allowing for the nearly fifteen years of persecution, conflict, and disenfranchisement they\u2019ve suffered to silence or break them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this uptick in violence, the protestors seem undeterred.  Organizers have called for near-daily demonstrations across the country against Bashir this week, coining it a \u201cWeek of Uprising.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

What\u2019s Next?<\/b><\/h2>\n

Both sides are at an impasse, unwilling to step back.  As protests and opposition continue to mount, the government raises the stakes with increasing levels of violence.  It remains unclear what impact recent events will have on Sudan\u2019s most vulnerable. <\/span><\/p>\n

According to the International Crisis Group, \u201cwithin the ruling party and security elites, ever-louder voices question whether the country can escape its economic doldrums with Bashir at the helm, given that his presidency is the great obstacle to obtaining foreign aid and or loans.\u201d  Though Bashir\u2019s base is splintering, at this point in time, he shows no signs of stepping down in face of these defections. <\/span><\/p>\n

Three possible scenarios could usher in an end to the protests.  Under the first–and worst case–scenario, Bashir would survive by subduing protestors via force.  As the Economist points out, Sudan is \u201cunable to pay its bills, the government has printed money. Inflation, at around 70%, is now the second highest in the world after Venezuela,\u201d so implementing reforms to appease the protestors would not be feasible.  Aside from the atrocities this option would unleash upon the Sudanese people, the maintenance of the status quo by force would spell disaster for Khartoum\u2019s recent efforts to re-engage with the West. With the ceasefire in Darfur, Blue Nile, and South Kordofan expired, Bashir\u2019s efforts to maintain control and buy loyalty could cause an uptick in fighting and instability in these tormented regions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Option two would involve Bashir\u2019s ouster by elements within his own party or security elites.  While this scenario might usher in a new government, it would likely bring instability, infighting, and perhaps just more of the same, as corruption runs deep, and the Sudanese state is depleted after decades of war and sanctions. <\/span><\/p>\n

The most promising scenario–option three–would be Bashir\u2019s resignation, with an internationally backed coalition government stepping in to run the country until fresh elections can take place.  In order to tip the scales towards this scenario–and protect civilians from greater bloodshed in the streets–the United States must use Khartoum\u2019s efforts to improve its relationship with Washington as a bargaining chip.  <\/span><\/p>\n

In a <\/span>statement <\/span><\/a>released last Tuesday, the United States–with the United Kingdom, Norway, and Canada–condemned the violence against protestors and made clear that Sudan\u2019s \u201cactions and decisions over the coming weeks will have an impact on the engagement of our governments and others in the coming months and years.\u201d  This is an important first step. The U.S. should continue to openly discourage violence against protestors and signal that future cooperation, aid, and normalization in relations are at stake. <\/span><\/p>\n

While the U.S. lifted some sanctions in Oct 2017, the second phase of sanctions relief–conditioned in part upon an improvement in Sudan\u2019s human rights record– could lead to more substantial benefits for Sudan, including eventual removal from the U.S.\u2019s state sponsors of terrorism list.  The country\u2019s placement on this list has kept foreign investors and banks at bay. If the designation were lifted, Khartoum could tap into much-needed investment, and perhaps even a bailout by the IMF. <\/span><\/p>\n

Washington must use this leverage to maintain pressure on Khartoum.  It must warn that commanders of various security apparatuses could face travel bans, asset freezes, and prosecution abroad for indiscriminate killings of civilians.  Only by creating powerful incentives for Bashir\u2019s resignation can the U.S. and other Western nations improve the prospects for a true regime change. <\/span><\/p>\n

For more information:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Africa News is providing updates on the protests here:<\/span><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.africanews.com\/2019\/01\/14\/police-clashes-with-sudanese-protesting-a-state-of-emergency-in-atbara\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Sudan expert Eric Reeves is compiling a daily compendium of information related to the protests on his website:<\/span><\/p>\n

http:\/\/sudanreeves.org\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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