{"id":22535,"date":"2019-01-11T00:44:37","date_gmt":"2019-01-11T00:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jww.org\/?p=22535"},"modified":"2019-01-11T00:44:37","modified_gmt":"2019-01-11T00:44:37","slug":"congo-has-a-new-president-will-tshisekedi-bring-much-needed-change-or-will-things-stay-the-same","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jww.org\/site\/congo-has-a-new-president-will-tshisekedi-bring-much-needed-change-or-will-things-stay-the-same\/","title":{"rendered":"Congo has a new president: Will Tshisekedi bring much needed change or will things stay the same?"},"content":{"rendered":"

At around 3 a.m., Jan. 10,  in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, following numerous delays, Congo\u2019s electoral commission finally declared Felix Tshisekedi the victor in the country\u2019s contentious presidential election.  While the declaration of a winner who is not Joseph Kabila \u2013 the dictatorial kleptocrat who has been president for the past 18 years \u2013 sets the stage for the country\u2019s first democratic transfer of power since achieving independence from Belgium in 1960, many Congo experts and activists fear Tshisekedi\u2019s ascension to the presidency will prove to be nothing more than an elaborate sham orchestrated to keep Kabila in control.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tshisekedi\u2019s win was announced almost two weeks after the Dec. 30 election.  Tshisekedi represents Congo\u2019s oldest political party, founded by his father, which has spent decades in the opposition.  Out of a field of 21 candidates, Tshisekedi allegedly garnered just under 40 percent of the vote. <\/span><\/p>\n

Allegedly, because the second primary opposition candidate, Martin Fayulu, a former Exxon executive turned parliamentarian, had been consistently the favorite in the polls leading up to voting day.  Fayulu also was named the winner by the Episcopal Council of the Catholic Church (CENCO), which deployed 40,000 observers to monitor the polls on election day and conducted a parallel tally.  After determining there was a clear, incontrovertible winner \u2013 which the New York Times revealed to be Fayulu \u2013 the CENCO urged the Congolese electoral commission (CENI) to release his name and the voting records.  <\/span><\/p>\n

Power-sharing scheme<\/b><\/h2>\n

When the release of election results was postponed by CENI from Jan. 6 to the early hours of Jan 10, mistrust among the main opposition leaders mounted.  Tshisekedi\u2019s camp claimed to have met with Kabila\u2019s camp to ensure a peaceful transfer of power–a claim that Kabila\u2019s people vehemently denied. However, Fayulu began to suspect that the reason for the meeting had been to set up a power-sharing arrangement that would allow Kabila to continue to maintain control over the government and his exploitative businesses, as well as to avoid accountability for his multitudinous crimes.  <\/span><\/p>\n

According to Fayulu, who accused the electoral commission, Kabila and Tshisekedi of colluding to manipulate the election results in Tshisekedi\u2019s favor, the power-sharing deal between Tshisekedi and Kabila had become an \u201copen secret.\u201d  Fayulu has repeatedly called for transparency in the tallying of the votes. \u201cThe Congolese people deserve the truth of the ballot, not another backroom arrangement,\u201d he said. <\/span><\/p>\n

JWW\u2019s partners on the ground, as well as other activists we\u2019ve consulted, view the announcement of Tshisekedi\u2019s victory as a huge defeat.  They claim Tshisekedi was Kabila\u2019s chosen successor all along, and that Kabila\u2019s hand-picked puppet candidate, Emmanuel Shadary, was a mere decoy, since he never had a chance of winning.  This appears to be supported by Tshisekedi\u2019s words upon hearing the news of his provisional victory: \u201cI pay tribute to President Joseph Kabila, and today we should no longer see him as an adversary, but rather, a partner in democratic change in our country.\u201d    <\/span><\/p>\n

Kabila may have reasoned that Shadary\u2019s defeat and the rise of one of the opposition candidates would satisfy the masses and solidify the appearance that real change was afoot.  This would explain why Shadary conceded his defeat so nonchalantly, saying \u201cthe Congolese people have chosen and democracy has triumphed.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

The Catholic Church immediately said the result did not match data collected by its election monitors.   <\/span><\/p>\n

Given that the lion\u2019s share of Congo\u2019s 80 million people voted for Fayulu, amid immense and pervasive dissatisfaction with Kabila\u2019s reign \u2013 we can anticipate that the conflict-beleaguered, economically depressed people of the Congo will not take Kabila\u2019s manipulations lying down.  Today there is quiet on the ground. Everyone is still processing the results and what they will mean for the country. However, already, numerous countries, including France and Belgium, are questioning the results and demanding that CENI release its data for review. <\/span><\/p>\n

Power of the people<\/b><\/h2>\n

Fayulu will likely wage his own legal battle against the election commission\u2019s findings, and we can expect his supporters to take to the streets. \u201cThe power of the crowd is what the winners should be afraid of,\u201d warned Francesca Bomboko of the Office of Studies for Research and International Consulting, which co-conducted the most credible pre-election opinion poll.  <\/span><\/p>\n

Kabila may think that he has hoodwinked Africa\u2019s largest nation, but the people will prove him wrong. The people are desperate for true democracy and change.  Never was this more clear than on election day, when the people of the city of Beni staged their own elections after being excluded from the official vote because of alleged Ebola-related and security concerns.  Using handmade paper ballots, which they collected in plastic bags and counted deep into the night, the people of Beni showed the world what true democracy looks like.<\/span><\/p>\n

This yearning to exercise their civil rights and establish rule of law runs deep throughout the DRC.  The fight for freedom from corruption and instability is far from over. However, the Congolese people must be careful.  Any new major outbreaks of violence could give the authorities an excuse to halt the transition to a new government or allow the ruling coalition to justify annulling the election results so that it may remain in control of the government indefinitely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Background to the elections<\/b><\/h2>\n

Following a two-year delay in holding the highly anticipated election to unseat President Joseph Kabila, the people of the DRC finally got the chance to go to the polls on Dec. 30.  The lead up was not without its vicissitudes, as a one-week postponement of election day was quickly followed by the exclusion of several opposition strongholds in Congo\u2019s Ebola- and conflict-affected northeast, representing about 4 percent of the population. <\/span><\/p>\n

The voting took place amidst widespread allegations of irregularities and fraud, including ballot tampering, voter suppression, and an array of technical and logistical issues.  Observers from both the Catholic Church and SYMOCEL reported major irregularities. Despite being excluded from the presidential election just days before they were to take to the polls, the people of Beni came out in droves to vote in makeshift elections organized by youth activists determined to exercise their rights and have their voices heard.  JWW\u2019s partners report that at least several of the youth organizers have already been arrested. <\/span><\/p>\n

Despite all this, election day was relatively free of violence, even as the post-election period, as expected, brought additional dramatic turns:<\/span><\/p>\n