Update:
On May 13, Major General Godefroid Niyombare, along with members of the Burundian army, launched a coup against the Nkurunziza government. While Nkurunziza was in Tanzania, attending an East African Community (EAC) summit to discuss the unrest associated with Nkurunziza’s election bid, Niyombare took to the radio to announce that he dismissed Nkurunziza from his presidency for attempting to violate the constitution. Immediately protestors turned jubilant as celebrations broke out throughout the streets of Bujumbura. There have been some reports of clashes between the police and the army/protestors, but it appears that most of the police have, for the time being, stood down.
President Nkurunziza’s spokesperson initially called the coup a joke, and it was reported that Nkurunziza was going to return to Burundi from Tanzania to address the situation. However, he was unable to do so as Niyombare ordered the closure of the airport to prevent Nkurunziza from landing, and Nkurunziza was forced to return to Tanzania. Talks are scheduled to occur between Niyombare’s supporters and Nkurunziza loyalists tomorrow.
The situation is very fluid, and it is unclear as to who is fully in charge of the country. It is also unclear what this means for the country’s political future, and how the current coup (or coup attempt) affects scheduled elections in June. JWW will continue to monitor the situation as it evolves.
Situation Report:
Last month, protesters took to the streets of Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi, to voice their opposition to President Nkurunziza’s plan to run for a third term in office. Under the constitution and the 2000 Arusha Agreement (part of the peace process to bring an end to the civil war), the president cannot serve more than two terms in office. While it was long suspected that Nkurunziza would seek a third term in office, all doubt was cast aside when, on April 25th, Nkurunziza accepted the ruling CNDD-FDD party’s nomination for president.
After the official announcement, protests in the streets grew. Unfortunately, so did the police response, which included violent crackdowns and the use of live ammunition on protesters. So far, at least 18 people have been killed since protests broke out. Nkurunziza supporters cite a perceived loophole in the constitution: since his 2005 election was not by popular vote, but by a vote in parliament, he should be allowed to seek a third term in office. The Nkurunziza opposition and much of the international community disagree. With elections slated for June 26th, and President Nkurunziza rejecting international calls to postpone elections, it is unlikely that the situation will be resolved before elections take place.
So besides the fact that the President of Burundi is seeking to defy the constitution and run for a third term in office, why are we monitoring the situation?
Risk of Atrocities:
Nkurunziza’s actions threaten the delicate peace in Burundi. The situation could quickly spiral out of control into violent civil conflict, with the potential for escalation into civil war, and risk of atrocities. The country for many years was divided along ethnic lines, between the Hutu majority and Tutsi minority. These tensions, which have existed since independence, led to a protracted social conflict that has been the cause of two instances of genocide (1972 and 1993), and a civil war (1993-2005). The war was nominally brought to an end with the signing of the 2000 Arusha Agreement, but some combatants (including Nkurunziza’s Hutu-led rebel group) did not participate in the talks. Eventually, the other major combatants did agree to disarm, and be incorporated into the nascent political system. Nkurunziza’s election in 2005 brought an end to the post-conflict transitional period. Unlike Burundi’s neighbor Rwanda, which did away with ethnic identities (at least in principle), a concerted effort has been made to minimize ethnic strife through a quota system — extending into the political and military spheres — to ensure inclusion of the Tutsi minority. It seems the current conflict is mainly political, but this can change.
An elderly woman waits among a crowd of other Burundian refugees for assistance in Rwanda’s Mahama Refugee Camp (photo via UNHCR).
Indications of escalation of simmering tensions are many: the Imbonerakure — the youth wing of the CNDD-FDD party allegedly armed by sections of the security forces — has been threatening and intimidating political opponents; there are reports of Tutsi being targeted for their politics as well as their ethnicity; and, over 50,000 Burundians have fled to neighboring countries — half to Rwanda —citing political intimidation, threats, and, in some cases, ethnic targeting.
Impact on the Region:
What happens in Burundi will not happen in a vacuum. With both President Kabila of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and President Kagame of Rwanda likely seeking a third term in office, in 2016 and 2017 respectively — also not allowed by either state’s constitutions — what happens in Burundi will set a precedent for those elections to come. Burundi’s history of attacking journalists and cracking down on opposition voices ahead of elections — through threats, violence, and imprisonment — are mirrored in Rwanda and, to a lesser extent, the DRC. The current situation in Burundi should act as a warning of what may occur in the DRC and Rwanda in the coming years.
A destabilized Burundi threatens the security of both the DRC and Rwanda. The influx of Burundian refugees into these neighboring states which have a similar ethnic makeup could easily fan the flames of existing ethnic tensions, encouraging the involvement of DRC and Rwanda in Burundi’s conflict. Given the history of genocide in Rwanda and episodes of genocide in Burundi — against both Hutu and Tutsi — it is unlikely that if Tutsi are targeted in Burundi en masse that President Kagame, a Tutsi, will sit on the sidelines.
Rwanda’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Louise Mushikiwabo, alluded to this in a recent statement in which she said, “While we respect Burundi’s sovereignty in addressing internal matters, Rwanda considers the safety of innocent population as a regional and international responsibility.”
Moving Forward:
The situation is very troubling, and regardless of the outcome it will have far reaching implications for the future of the Great Lakes region. Jewish World Watch will continue to monitor Burundi closely, and provide updates as the situation evolves. For more information make sure you follow us on Twitter and Facebook.
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