Something incredible just happened. After nearly 30 years in power, Sudan’s President — indicted war criminal and genocidal mastermind Omar al-Bashir — has been ousted and arrested by the military. Is this good news or bad news? And, what does this mean for the future of Sudan?
The Darfur genocide that occurred 15 years ago was the catalyst for the creation of Jewish World Watch and remains a cornerstone of our work, as we continue to empower Darfuri survivors living in the refugee camps in Chad and call for those responsible for the genocide and mass atrocities to be brought to justice. JWW has been following the popular revolution currently underway in Sudan, and will keep you apprised of any developments, particularly insider information provided by our new field representative in Khartoum.
Speaking on state TV mid-day Thursday, Lt Gen Awad Ibn Ouf said, “I announce as minister of defense the toppling of the regime and detaining its chief in a secure place.” Citing “poor management, corruption, and an absence of justice,” as the reasons for this unexpected move, and apologizing “for the killing and violence that took place,” Ibn Ouf, who is currently under U.S. sanctions for his role in the Darfur genocide, said he was instating a three-month state of emergency. The army would retain control of the country for a two-year transitional period, which would be followed by elections. Ibn Ouf announced the constitution was being suspended, border crossings were being shut until further notice, and airspace was being closed for 24 hours. A 10 p.m. curfew has also been instituted countrywide. On a more positive note, Lt. Gen Auf called for a comprehensive ceasefire in all parts of Sudan as well as for the immediate release of all political prisoners. He also invited all armed groups to join the political transitional process.
According to the BBC, al-Bashir’s exact whereabouts or the circumstances of his capture remain unknown.
Signs of the military’s shifting allegiance began to appear over the past several days, when it looked as if that Sudanese soldiers had intervened to protect protesters from security forces that were attempting to break up a four-day long peaceful sit-in staged by thousands of Sudanese demonstrators outside the defense ministry complex, where al-Bashir resides.
Though many Sudanese are celebrating this apparent victory of peaceful populous revolt, others remain wary. The Sudanese Professional Association — which has been at the helm of coordinating the protests since they began nearly four months ago — immediately rejected the military’s statement and urged people to remain at the sit-in outside army headquarters. The group in the vanguard of the protests has taken to Twitter, claiming that the military takeover is a mere illusion, recycling the same faces and keeping the same people in charge. It encouraged the people to remain at the sit-in outside army headquarters, to continue protesting in the face of such deceptive tactics.
The protestors have always demanded a civilian council to lead the transition rather than a military junta. Said Alaa Salah, a young woman who has become known as the “Nubian queen,” a symbol of the Sudanese uprising, after a photo of her protesting atop a car went viral, tweeted “the people do not want a transitional military council. Change will not happen with Bashir’s entire regime hoodwinking Sudanese civilians through a military coup. We want a civilian council to head the transition.” Reuters reports that since the military announced they were taking over and arresting al-Bashir the mood among the protestors has changed from celebration to anger. In Sudan’s capital Khartoum, they are chanting “Fall, again!” at the military, adapting the earlier chant, “Fall, that’s all!” which had been aimed at al-Bashir before his alleged toppling.
The African Union has also issued a statement condemning the takeover: “Military take over is not the appropriate response to the challenges facing Sudan and the aspirations of its people,” said chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat.
Sudanese political commentators have largely dismissed the military’s statement or responded with skepticism, arguing that the military regime is merely removing its figurehead while retaining control of the country. “The regime hasn’t fallen, the regime is basically playing musical chairs. The revolution continues,” tweeted dalliasd. “Considering that Ibn Ouf, the official who made the statement and who is to head a “High Council of Armed Forces” in the interim period is Bashir’s VP and Defence Minister, it’s very much meet the new boss, same as the old boss,” pointed out Nesrine Malik.
How did this unfold?
At dawn this morning, military vehicles entered the large compound in Khartoum housing the defense ministry, the army headquarters and al-Bashir’s personal residence. State TV and radio interrupted programming with a message that a statement would be forthcoming. This prompted tens of thousands of demonstrators to march through central Khartoum, some chanting, “If has fallen, we won.” Around lunchtime, the defense minister made his formal announcement of the coup and military-led transitional government.
These events were the culmination of a multi-day sit-in at the military complex in Khartoum where al-Bashir resides. Over the course of the past four months, Sudan’s populist revolution has remained in full swing. On April 6, the Sudanese Professional Association (SPA) — a main organizing body behind the sustained countrywide demonstrations—called for protests to mark the 34th anniversary of the popular uprising that toppled then-president Jaafar Muhammad an-Nimeiry’s government, and to reaffirm the people’s demand for al-Bashir’s ouster.
Thousands of Sudanese responded to the call, staging a four-day sit-in outside the military headquarters in Khartoum. According to Amnesty International, nine people have reportedly been killed since the sit-in began on April 6, with police and security forces employing excessive force to try to disperse protesters.
On Monday, soldiers fired tear gas to try to disperse the crowds, then blockaded roads around the peaceful sit in. Khartoum also cut off the water supply to the area, and searched and seized cars for ferrying food and water to protesters. Tuesday saw clashes that resulted in several deaths. Some media outlets reported that Sudanese soldiers intervened to protect protesters from security forces who attempted to break up the sit-in outside the defense ministry complex, signifying a potential split in the allegiance of military forces.
Our voice on the ground
Jewish World Watch’s field representative in Khartoum reports that with the sit-in “everything completely changed.”
EXCLUSIVE — The low-ranking officers at the army are with the people and they disobeyed the orders….Shadow militias on buses, rumored to be sent by ICC-indicted NCP president Ahmed Haroun, tried to sneak in to disrupt the sit-in but they were chased off.
The protestors tightened their security checks. They checked everyone coming into the protests.
Everyone is here, with the protesters. Darfuri people are more than they used to be. Some Islamist students who were always with the government were seen in the protests. Even the NISS [National Intelligence and Security Service] just issued a statement praising the demonstrations and was saying that they are with the right of the people to protest peacefully. It seems like they want to jump off the sinking ship.
Muslim Sofis and all the religious leaders have joined the protests including Copts and Christians from Nuba Mountains came to the sit-in and sang from the church.
Celebrities, superstars who used to stand with the government have joined and are saying it must fall.
More than 45 people have died since the protests began in December, with many more injured and incarcerated. The protests were originally sparked by the removal of subsidies that increased the cost of living, but the call evolved into a demand for the president’s resignation and the dismantling of his regime. Demonstrations spread like wildfire throughout the war- and corruption-embattled nation. Government forces regularly employed brutality and excessive force to try to suppress protestors, including shoot-to-kill tactics and other shocking violations of fundamental human rights. Nevertheless, the Sudanese people continued to come out in droves countrywide, calling for an end to the al-Bashir regime.
What now?
While al-Bahir’s removal is undoubtedly a tremendous development and a sign of the true power of a sustained, peaceful people’s revolution, many questions and concerns remain. There is no clear roadmap for a handing over of power to civilian rule. Many fear that al-Bashir’s cronies, who will essentially rule the country under the paradigm presented by current defense minister Ibn Ouf, have no intention of putting the country in the hands of the people. According to Fergan Keane of the BBC, “the security elite has calculated that removing Omar al-Bashir and imposing a curfew will buy them time and end the protests. If so this represents a serious miscalculation.”
The bottom line is, this is far from over. This situation remains volatile and in flux. The Sudanese Professionals Association and other civil society groups, which have spearheaded the protests, will not accept this game of smoke and mirrors. They are highly organized and tapped into the people, ready to remain vigilant in their demands for a true changing of the guard.
In the days to come, all parties must exercise restraint and cool heads, as well as demonstrate an openness to compromise. The military should be prepared for ongoing protests, and should respect the human rights of the people, even in the face of their skepticism or frustration. All parties must respect the rights of persons and private property. All stakeholders must engage in an inclusive dialogue to facilitate the actualization of the Sudanese people’s calls for democracy, rule of law, and stability. As U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt adroitly tweeted, “Sudan’s brave people have called for change, but it must be real change. A military council ruling for 2 years is not the answer. We need to see a swift move to inclusive, representative, civilian leadership. And we need to ensure there’s no more violence.”
For the U.S.’s part, we must deploy our full diplomatic toolkit to ensure the situation on the ground does not deteriorate and that the opportunity for real change is seized. Congress should quickly come together to adopt a resolution supporting a roadmap for transition to civilian leadership, in exchange for which it could offer incentives, including the rolling back of punitive measures and the restarting of normalization processes with Sudan. This is the time to use improved relations with the United States as a carrot for bringing about a true transition of leadership in Sudan. Diplomatic incentives might include, supporting international debt relief at the World Bank, appointing a new U.S. ambassador to Sudan (the first since 1997), and allocating new funding from USAID. The ultimate incentive to dangle — provided substantial requisite changes are made and a smooth, rights-respecting transition is realized: lifting Sudan’s designation as a state sponsor of terror.