*JWW’s Consultant in the Congo contributed to this post.
Democratic Republic of the Congo President Joseph Kabila has intentionally failed to respect his country’s constitution and the obligation to organize presidential elections. Since President Kabila’s second term is coming to an end and the constitution of the DRC does not allow the president a third term in office, Kabila should be out of office by the end of the year. National elections had been scheduled for late November 2016; however, Kabila has implemented a variety of tactics to delay those elections.
For a year, Congolese political actors from the opposition have been wondering whether or not they should join the “inclusive national dialogue” called by Kabila in November 2015, which some have seen as simply an attempt by President Kabila to cling to power; this and other tactics by the president have been met with resistance by the nation’s main opposition parties, including the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), under leadership of the historical opposition leader Étienne Tshisekedi Wa Mulumba, and the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC), led by Vital Kamerhe, who served as President of the National Assembly from 2006 to 2008.
The Togolese politician and diplomat Edem Kodjo, former Secretary General of the African Union (AU), was appointed by the AU to facilitate the dialogue, which Kodjo called an “impossible mission” in the beginning. The dialogue began in early September 2016 and aimed to bring together a variety of stakeholders, including the ruling party leaders, main opposition leaders, civil society, church leaders, traditional leaders, DRC-based diplomats, and formerly dominant political figures. Tshisekedi, the widely respected main opposition leader, along with the G7 (a political platform of seven parties on the opposition side), the Alternance for the Republic and many other dominant figures boycotted both Kabila’s call to join the dialogue, along with invitations from Kodjo. However the leader of UNC, Vital Kamerhe, joined the dialogue. Kamerhe’s UNC is the third-most powerful party in the opposition and ranked third in the contentious 2011 Presidential Elections after Kabila, and Tshisekedi.
The dialogue has been characterized by misunderstandings which caused interruptions; some participants, especially those from the opposition side, temporarily withdrew, resulting in delays. The timeline for the dialogue originally was set for two weeks, after it began in early September, but it lasted for a month and a half, finally concluding on October 19th with a signed agreement between the government and some opposition members.
The dialogue concluded last week with a signed agreement allowing President Kabila to remain in power until presidential elections can take place, now delayed until April 2018. Next month, a new coalition government will be formed, for which a Prime Minister will be appointed from the opposition side. It is widely speculated that Kamerhe will be appointed Prime Minister, yet the problem with the dialogue and its resulting agreement is that it has left many of the opposition parties, civil society (non-governmental coalitions, youth movements, and women’s groups), and Congolese citizens out of the conversation. So while the government touts the deal as a great success and a compromise between Kabila’s administration and the opposition, the fact remains that no single united opposition with a unified voice was involved in the negotiations. In fact, supporters of the opposition leaders who did not participate in the dialogue are vehemently opposed to any scenario in which Kabila is allowed to extend his time in power.
The main opposition party, UDPS, called for a nationwide protest against the deal allowing Kabila to stay in power for another year and a half, shutting down Kinshasa, the nation’s capital, as protesters staged a general strike. Civil society leaders who stand in opposition to Kabila’s move to retain power after December 2016 have said this is just the beginning, and more protests and strikes can be expected.
[su_column size=”2/3″ center=”yes” class=””]
[su_column size=”1/3″ center=”no” class=””]
[/su_column]
What does this deal mean for Congolese going forward?
JWW’s consultant in Congo met with multiple people from civil society, political parties and churches, as well as local political analysts to assess their take on the current situation.
One supporter of the UNC political party led by opposition leader Kamerhe stated that the agreement is an opportunity to escape, if not to stop, escalation of the ongoing violence across the country and will bring people together; he sees it as a road to a peaceful presidential election in 2018.
Loyal supporters of Kamerhe took to the streets right after the agreement was signed to express their support for their leader. As the co-speaker in the dialogue on behalf of the opposition side, Kamerhe is a favorite to be appointed to the new prime minister position, even while he does not have support from all opposition leaders or civil society.
Many are skeptical of this plan, however, and worry Kabila is using the deal as an opportunity to buy time to figure out how he can hold onto power beyond 2018.
A local political analyst said: “This dialogue and the agreement accordingly are simply a power sharing space that was organized to perpetuate corruption and bad governance. President Joseph Kabila was unable to respect the constitution of the country, how can we trust and expect him to respect a mere agreement from a dialogue where most of the Congolese leading the opposition were not present? Like many other leaders in the African Great Lakes region, Kabila viciously wants to extend his terms after he had several times failed to change the constitution and confuses the Congolese people today, since the constitution states that the current president leaves power only when a new elected president comes in.’’
This signed agreement is a political arrangement influenced by the ruling party, which never wanted to quit power and wanted, at all costs, for President Kabila to stay in power. Unlike the constitution, the agreement has no legal authority; it is simply a power-sharing deal which opens a window for the ruling party to gain more time and strength to go far beyond 2018. This tactic has been happening, as well, in many other African countries in the region, where leaders in power invite their counterparties to dialogue and share power whenever their own terms are over. In Gabon, Ali Bongo Ondimba is inviting the opposition leaders to join him; the same happened in the Republic of Congo, just on the other side of the Congo River with President Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been in and out of the political space since 1979, organizing a dialogue after being elected to a third term in office, following amendments made to the constitution, which had barred a third term.
The dialogue that took place in the DRC is a strong indicator of lust for power, and proves that there is still much work to be done with the younger generation in Congo, to instill the values of putting the respect of human dignity at the center of their everyday fight, and to avoid selfishness and greed to build stronger democratic institutions and societies.
From the capital city of Kinshasa, Tshisekedi and other opposition leaders have been promising to join in the streets on December 19, 2016, to oust President Kabila and ignore the newly formed coalition government. A report by the UN joint office in charge of human rights shows that during protests on October 19-20 in Kinshasa, which were organized by the opposition parties, 53 innocent people were killed by the police and army forces. An increase in violence from both the government and protestors appears to be, at this point, almost inevitable.
While it is up to the Congolese people to decide on who holds and leads their destiny, international, regional, national, and local policy makers are being called upon to stop the ongoing violence that has affected innocent people in Congo for more than 20 years.
The United States, the European Union (EU) and their key partners should not keep quiet or stand idly by, they should use their leverage and continue to put pressure on Congolese top leaders to ensure that a presidential election takes place — to give peace and democracy a chance. If this does not happen, peace will remain elusive.
The EU has issued statements that it will continue to pressure Kabila and top leaders within the Congolese government. This increased pressure will likely come with additional targeted sanctions and trade restrictions. And, last week, the U.S. embassy in Kinshasa issued a statement reiterating its call for the government to hold elections in 2017. A statement from the U.S. Secretary of State or the President of the United States would send a stronger message, but that is yet to come.
The international community must devise a new strategy going forward. Until now, it seems all diplomatic energy had been put into ensuring elections would take place in 2017. Now that it appears those elections will not happen, a new strategy must be created. As the Obama administration reaches its end, the future role for the U.S. in the DRC must become a top priority for the next President of the United States. What happens in the DRC will likely affect not only the Congolese people, but could very well impact the entire region.
Take Action:
Urge your Representatives to co-sponsor H.Res. 780: “Urging respect for the constitution of the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the democratic transition of power in 2016.”
[maxbutton id=”12”]